The mood in the entire Newcastle United community is morose.
(This article was mostly written during the extended March international break)
A three week pause following a second derby defeat making it much worse this time around and leading to a lot of speculation that’s very near term in thinking.
Its not been helped by the CEO David Hopkinson making a lot of statements without concrete action where it mattered.
Most importantly, we knew since October that PSR is being replaced with SCR and thus there was a potential spending budget we could have used in January.
It’s a big worry when someone talks a big talk but doesn’t have anything to show for it in terms of his own actions and hints at pushing the blame on others. We’ve been here before, quite recently too.
Based on results, there’s speculation around Eddie Howe and while results do matter, there’s some perspective to be needed. I don’t mean to go over Howe’s achievements of the past four years or the instability of last summer which enough people would’ve done. I do want to highlight three other points though:
First – inconsistency in terms of table positions in successive seasons.
After two seasons of finishing second in the 1990s, Newcastle United spent the next four seasons outside the top 10, finishing 13th, 13th, 11th, 11th. Bobby Robson turned it around and we jumped to 4th, 3rd, 5th, then subsequently down to 14th. Back up to 7th but then down to 13th, 12th and relegation in 18th place.
Now in the present day, the fact is that there is a moneyed six being chased by two (Newcastle United/Villa) with a few others not far behind who’re capable of at least one good season to get into European spots.
Talking of the moneyed elite, when Chelsea had their first takeover in the Premier League era (most people don’t remember the 1998 one that brought in money and foreign players because the second one 5 years later was a far more successful era) they finished 3rd then down to 5th, 6th, 6th and getting knocked out in the first round of the UEFA Cup three successive seasons.
Its not just that Howe’s earned the right to see through a bad season for a fresh start but that there can be a bad season, AKA a dip in between a longer term upward graph. In the stock markets too the longer term bigger winners do have some sharp drops in between. The successful investor checks that there isn’t too much wrong with how the company operates/its top personnel and doubles down on their investment instead of exiting. Which brings me to point number two.
Second – this season Newcastle United have beaten Man City, Chelsea, Man Utd (10 vs 15 incl the match officials!), Spurs twice (perhaps not to be mentioned this year), would’ve beaten Arsenal but for the multitude of wrong decisions involving Gabriel. Also beat Aston Villa (FA Cup), PSV, and barring some questionable calls/endless added time being played – would’ve scalped PSG and Barca too. Bayer Leverkusen barely scraped a draw against us at their ground.
Newcastle United have dominated or had level pegging in terms of the performances in the majority of most of the games we’ve lost, only being overrun in quite a few games over the last 20-30min. We’ve lost 25 points from winning positions in the league (the PL record was set by Spurs last season at 29 and we may still beat it) which has twin aspects to it. There’s that inability to finish off games (regardless of whether we’re playing well) but there’s also the ability to dominate regardless of opponent or ground before inexplicably giving away the initiative repeatedly.
Here’s an incredible stat for you that no one would’ve shared till now – This season 17/20 Premier League clubs have lost 10+ (ie double digit) number of games across competitions with only Arsenal (6), Man City (8) and Bournemouth (9 – because they didn’t play in Europe and are still likely to reach 10 by May). That includes four of the so called big six (and may yet include all before the end of the season).
As the number of games multiply in a season and Eddie Howe wanting to win every game in every competition including both domestic cups (as match-going supporters what more can you ask for that your time, money, effort will get at least the best possible playing XI and their desire to try and win on every occasion, whether the result is a happy one is a secondary effect – not every club gets that, and our support deserves it more than most for the work needed to travel the extra distances), one should expect a non-linear move for NUFC up towards the table where the Super League clubs sit. Speaking of the cups, League Cup semi-final and FA Cup fifth round, only going out to a Man City in both (who come into their own in the second half of the season) again isn’t a bad output.
Third – two times now, when there haven’t been European midweek games in the season (and consequently more training time), Howe’s gotten us into the UCL (where too our results have been not bad the first time around in a group that gave two semi-finalists and the subsequent season’s winner, but even better the second time around – almost making the top eght in the league stage). We’re likely to not be in a European spot this season (not necessarily a bad thing given where we are right now – more on that later) and as long as we don’t lose too many of our top players (more on that below too) in the summer, what’d be the primary objective next season? To get back into UCL again. Who’s the best person to deliver that as of now? Eddie Howe.
Almost a season back we were playing Arsenal in May with two games to go and the possibility of finishing second in the league, but for Raya’s spectacular show (and Isak’s mysterious no-show towards the end of the season) we may well have done that after finishing 7th the season before. If we get the squad and tactics right, we actually have better depth now to try for our best league finish this century.
Which brings me to the controversial point I stated above, of ending up outside the Euro spots being a good thing.
Yes, we all desire to see the team perform in newer surroundings, meet supporters of different clubs in Europe, maybe win a European trophy of a lesser pedigree (Newcastle or Villa would be near favourites every single time in the Europa League nowadays, let alone in Conference League) and that perhaps also opening a route into UCL.
But that doesn’t apply to the Conference League and only one club in Europe gets to win the Europa League. The issue isn’t just the Thursday-Sunday schedule and how it messes you up in the Premier League completely. The extra travel time, more tired bodies, potentially lower performance output from the players all season long. And since we’re likely to go deep into those competitions, this would almost surely be a death knell for making the UCL the subsequent season from the PL standings (top 5).
The worrying bit in all this is of course whether the core of the squad will stay together, seeing the longer term possibility of cup wins and a high league finish leading to a UCL return next season vs immediately moving to a ‘big’ team that’s in Europe (with the added incentive of immediate bigger wages).
Livramento seems to have his mind set on ensuring a summer move and avoiding an injury so he’s likely already gone. With Trippier leaving and no back up for Hall yet that means we’ll have to recruit three full-backs together along with potentially all three goalkeepers (if Pope decides to move seeking regular playing time instead of being a no.2 once a new first choice GK settles in).
That is major destabilisation and this is before we consider the need for at least ne change in our CF options and a likely forced change in midfield if Tonali follows Livramento, as seems quite probable.
If Hopkinson tries to get a big name coach to replace Howe that’ll be even more destabilising as the new coach will want more of ‘his’ players in. Integrating 5-6 new players in a summer is the max that ought to be attempted at one go, half the squad changing is likely to reduce the chances of an immediate return to UCL to near zero. Most of those ‘big name/fame’ coaches – Mourinho, Pochettino, Conte etc charge big money, demand big transfer spend each window, any success weans off in about a year and they leave with the team mid-table, squad half rebuilt, relations with some players spoilt & a big compensation payout for a 3-5 year contract for their coaches team which also affects the PSR/SCR numbers.
For the CEO, appointing a big name results in a short-term popularity boost for self amd they try to appoint another such, once things go sour and the club destabilises further. Look at Spurs, Chelsea, ManU as ongoing examples. Liverpool on the other hand didn’t fire Klopp on finishing 7th, Arteta hasn’t been fired by Arsenal after not winning a trophy for five years and may yet get an extension without. Slot on the other hand may lose the job after winning the league in his first season. The difference is the quality of play, the team’s metrics etc – has it gone down? Has your ability to match up to your biggest opponents reduced?
If you’re able to pull away from recent Newcastle United results and look at the team’s play overall, you’ll see our players lose steam in the latter part of games, become slower in pressing or getting into the right positions but (mostly) they aren’t doing the wrong things, often they’re doing things wrongly though. I pointed out in a previous article that the team was likely to play a 55-56 match season and would need to adjust accordingly (playing time management, blooding youth, less intensity during some phases and games etc) else the output is likely to suffer more than during the previous UCL campaign and I am not happy being in a “I told you so” space here.
Looking at the situation with Tonali as a particular example, we fell apart from the moment he left the field in Barcelona, and his absence vs the great unwashed was also clearly felt, showing that we can be competitive in games when at least one out of Bruno/Sandro are starting. But if Tonali insists on leaving in the summer, we need to make sure the price is right, use say half of that selling price to get Anderson back. Elliot will likely be willing to come back even without European football and would help power us to UCL again.
I really hope Hopkinson and Wilson have players lined up as replacements for Tonali and Livramento – just in case.
They’ve had 6-8 months notice on both (in terms of Sandro’s agent pitching his player/Tino not signing new contract) unlike Alexander Isak and no excuse for not lining up good players, even if the great elude us due to lack of UCL qualification. Given the ability to spend and the money we’ll get for those two, it should be clear where the blame should really lie if these two outgoing/incoming aren’t handled well.
I doubt they’ve even prepped a list of managerial candidates in case Eddie Howe left for any reason at some point. They’d likely look to get a star name for a short term boost in popularity rather than a young forward-looking manager (if Eddie was to leave anytime this decade – I hope not, but if he did I really hope they throw everything into taking someone like say Fabregas off Como’s hands or a Nagelsmann after his time with the German national team).
Long term investing seems an outdated concept in today’s YOLO (You Only Live Once) world where everyone’s insecurities are pushed to the brink via social media, but it still pays the best returns, provided you’re looking at the correct factors when deciding to stick/twist. Fergie took seven years to win his first title, Klopp took five, Arteta is already over six years in. Its not easy getting someone in for the long term who’s also invested in the club’s progress to the point his and the clubs fortunes become one.
Listening to others, reading social media, will make us impatient.
The best portfolio gains are always for those that ride out the storm. Buy right, sit tight.
“The desire to perform all the time is usually a barrier to performing over time” – Robert Olstein.