Newcastle United and relegation from the Premier League are now being put in the same sentence, used in headlines.
Two relegation places are confirmed and one still up for grabs.
When Nottingham Forest hammered Sunderland 5-0 on Friday night, it then looked a contest between Tottenham and West Ham for 18th in the table and the final relegation spot.
However, dramatic late victories for Spurs and the Hammers on Saturday afternoon has made things ‘interesting’ for neutrals.
With four rounds of Premier League matches still to play, Tottenham are 18th on 34 points, West Ham 17th on 36 points, with Forest 16th on 39 points and Leeds in 15th on 40 points.
The media and rival fans now also desperate to put Newcastle United into the mix, having lost their last four Premier League matches in a row, Eddie Howe and his team are 14th in the table on 42 points.
So how safe, or not, are Newcastle United?
I have looked back at the last 30 years at how many points the team finishing third bottom accumulated, this is ever since it became a 38 match Premier League season.
Premier League: Final Points of Teams Relegated in 18th Place by Season
| Season | Points | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | 25 | Leicester City |
| 2023/24 | 26 | Luton Town |
| 2022/23 | 34 | Leicester City |
| 2021/22 | 35 | Burnley |
| 2020/21 | 28 | Fulham |
| 2019/20 | 34 | Bournemouth |
| 2018/19 | 34 | Cardiff City |
| 2017/18 | 33 | Swansea City |
| 2016/17 | 34 | Hull City |
| 2015/16 | 37 | Newcastle United |
| 2014/15 | 35 | Hull City |
| 2013/14 | 33 | Norwich City |
| 2012/13 | 36 | Wigan Athletic |
| 2011/12 | 36 | Bolton Wanderers |
| 2010/11 | 39 | Birmingham City |
| 2009/10 | 30 | Burnley |
| 2008/09 | 34 | Newcastle United |
| 2007/08 | 36 | Reading |
| 2006/07 | 38 | Sheffield United |
| 2005/06 | 34 | Birmingham City |
| 2004/05 | 33 | Crystal Palace |
| 2003/04 | 33 | Leicester City |
| 2002/03 | 42 | West Ham United |
| 2001/02 | 36 | Ipswich Town |
| 2000/01 | 34 | Manchester City |
| 1999/2000 | 33 | Wimbledon |
| 1998/99 | 36 | Charlton Athletic |
| 1997/98 | 40 | Bolton Wanderers |
| 1996/97 | 40 | Sunderland |
| 1995/96 | 38 | Manchester City |
A lot of people have referenced the 42 points that West Ham were relegated with, the same points total that Newcastle United currently have with four games left to play.
However, I had no idea that in the 22 seasons since then, not a single Premier League club has been relegated with 40 or more points.
Indeed, only three times in the last 22 Premier League seasons has any club been relegated with more than 36 points. Newcastle United one of that trio, doing it in 2015/16 with 37 points.
Interesting to see that in the first three Premier League seasons after it became 38 matches, the 18th placed teams managed 38, 40 and 40 points. Then the next 37 seasons there is only that one-off West Ham 2002/03 season when a team has been relegated with 40 points or more.
I don’t think Newcastle United are at threat of relegation and the reality I believe is that yet again the 18th placed team this season will end up with less than 40 points, certainly less than 42.
At the same time though, until it is mathematically certain then that negative speculation will continue to hang over Eddie Howe and his team.
The best possible solution of course is for a convincing win on Saturday over sixth placed Brighton to get rid of the relegation talk altogether.
Premier League table as at Tuesday 28 April 2026
The bizarre nature of this season’s table means that whilst Newcastle United are only eight points off third bottom with four games to go, they are also only eight points off the Seagulls who are top six currently.