Now we know. To win the World Cup, England will have to defeat not only the reigning world champions, Argentina, but also the team who were far superior last night to France, the No1 team in Fifa’s latest rankings.
Those rankings were updated before the semi-finals and had France on 1,948.97 points. Second were Argentina on 1,943.47, closely followed by Spain on 1,934.79.
In fourth place, as they had been for a while, were England, on 1,889.52.
Tommy Tuchel’s men have reached the semi-final by defeating Mexico (ranked 10th), Croatia (13th), Norway (19th), the Democratic Republic of Congo (41st) and Panama (44th), while drawing 0-0 with Ghana (65th).
From the first kick to the last in the stadium near Dallas, Spain outplayed the French. Perhaps Didier Deschamps and his not-so-merry men had been listening to the ITV experts (joke) who were convinced France would win despite plenty of evidence to the contrary. Did they even look at the recent head-to-head record or is that the sort of basic research they consider to be beneath them?
As my astute son mentioned on Monday, when I said the French defence was about as impressive as the Maginot Line, if Lucas Digne is the best left-back his nation can field, they are less than watertight at the back.
When Lamine Yamal outfoxed him time and again, I started wondering if the risible and seemingly miserable Lee Dixon would have done better than the hapless Aston Villa full-back. A belated job-switch from co-commentator to floundering defender would at least have given the viewers something to enjoy.
Back in the ITV studio, whose only impressive feature is the New York City skyline, Keano, Red Nev and Vieira, encouraged by Mark Pougatch, continually told every viewer foolish enough to listen (guilty, M’lud) that the French simply had to turn up with 11 players to win the semi-final. They said it before kick-off and at half-time when Spain led 1-0.
I almost expected these highly paid rentagobs to declare after the final whistle that the result was a Dave Lee Travesty, because France had such a stellar line-up of “generational talents”. What does that absurd phrase mean, anyway?
I never did catch the post-match musings, having switched off not just the volume but the entire TV as soon as the ref blew for full-time.
What can we expect tonight in Atlanta, Georgia? Another result that defies the rankings, with fourth beating second only 24 hours after third beat first, would be a mighty fine outcome.
Thomas Tuchel would overnight become England’s most popular German football figure since Bert Trautmann, a Boy’s Own hero to any pensioner who knows his history.
As with the late, great Seve Ballesteros and his captaincy of the Ryder Cup team that stuffed the Yanks in 1997, I cannot help wondering if England’s impressive run to the World Cup semi-final has been achieved despite Tuchel rather than because of him.
The team spirit generated by the German is undeniable. England are strong on mentality. I had no problem with TT ignoring the questionable talents of, for example, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer and Harry Maguire. They didn’t do enough last season to justify a berth in the squad of 26. Neither, in some cases, do they seem to have heard there is no “i” in the word team, though they clearly know there is a “me” . . .
Where I disagreed with Thomas Tuchel was on the inclusion of Tino Livramento, Reece James and John Stones, three injury-prone defenders who have unfortunately but predictably been found wanting.
Tino missed the final few games of the Premier League season because of an injury caused against Bournemouth. It was by no means his first in 2025/26. James rarely plays more than three domestic games in a row. Stones started only five (5) Premier League games last season and was substituted in most of them. While he has slowly improved during the World Cup campaign, he looked as undercooked as a raw chicken in the opener against Croatia.
International tournaments are attritional, injuries are to be expected. Why weaken the initial squad by choosing several players whose availability is not their strongest ability?
Lewis Hall, a skilful and attack-minded left-back, was considered not good enough. With England struggling to field a competent alternative, he must wonder why.
Tuchel’s liking for those whose form and/or fitness is questionable saw him choose Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke, who were in and out of the Arsenal team last season. Ask half-a-dozen objective Gooners (good luck with finding that many) and they will tell you neither had a great 2025/26. Neither did Eberechi Eze. Who is honestly surprised that none of those three has impressed for England thus far? Only Anthony Gordon, lately of this parish, has enhanced his reputation with the tireless running essential when Kane starts.
The policy of picking tried and trusted troopers reached its nadir when Jordan Henderson made the cut. He was widely viewed as a cheerleader, in cricketing parlance a good tourist. While we all like a laugh, his inclusion meant a younger, more dynamic midfielder was excluded. No place for Alex Scott or Morgan Gibbs-White.
Admittedly, Hendo has done his bit, being booked for delaying an opposition throw-in, a trick he presumably learnt from Jamaal Lascelles. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery . . . though I defy anyone with half-a-brain to repeat the ex-Mackem’s pratfall in which he bust his arm. Nobody could have foreseen such a mishap, though Henderson was always an accident waiting to happen. Wait no longer!
Ivan Toney rather than, say, Danny Welbeck also bemused me. In reality, the choice was almost irrelevant, such is Tuchel’s refusal to give anyone except Kane the chance to impress as the main striker. While he has helped to propel England to the last four, his at-best pedestrian pace has slowed to a gentle jog in the two most recent games, against Mexico and Norway. Meanwhile, Ollie Watkins waits patiently for an opening. Maybe it will come tonight and his introduction will be hailed as another tactical masterstroke by the plain-speaking German.
If centre-forward is the most important role, the keeper’s is not far behind. Jordan Pickford, with the honourable exception of his performance at the Azteca, has been as jumpy as a Mexican jumping bean. At fault against Croatia, lucky to avoid at least a yellow card against Ghana, indecisive and prone to weird decisions in other games. Am I the only armchair fan who thought he withdrew his arm a second before the ball flew past him and into the net for Norway’s opener last Saturday?
As with Kane’s omnipresence, Tuchel has cooked his goose by looking no further than T Rex Arms to be England’s No1. The editor of The Mag likes to ask how come not one of the so-called big six has signed Pickford if he really is that good? About 15 years go, a colleague on Sunday Times Sport wrote the headline “Find Us Keepers”, reflecting the shortage of home-grown custodians in the Premier League. The options are even fewer today.
James Trafford and Dean Henderson, the former sidelined by Manchester City, the latter a Europa Conference League winner with Crystal Palace, for whom he played more than 50 games last season, are his deputies. I cannot recall either letting England down, though that is probably because Thomas Tuchel has refused to give them a look-in.
The relative success of the national team since Iceland outplayed us at Euro 2016 is down to several factors: the departure of the “golden generation”, the importance of St George’s Park in age-group competitions and elite academies, Gareth Southgate’s willingness to think outside of the box.
Despite all my criticism of Tuchel, I admire his strong-willed approach, his reluctance to accept second-best and his refusal to pick some players on reputation (or Mrs Maguire’s say-so).
Any match against a team containing Lionel Messi is unlikely to be straightforward. He is a phenomenal player, even at 39. Argentina are no great shakes, however, even if Fifa ranks them above England. I’m guardedly optimistic Sunday, July 19 will be the biggest day in international football since 1966.
Thomas Tuchel has an ace in his pack: Jude Bellingham, aged 23. He will be targeted by the Argies tonight. How he responds is likely to determine whether England reach their first World Cup final on foreign soil. I just hope the US referee is not the main talking point after the final whistle.