The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.
The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters/issues at clubs as well.
However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.
The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game away at Leeds United.
Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could/should have a big bearing on this Leeds United v Newcastle v United game: “Newcastle’s draw with Bournemouth was a little reminder that this rebuild under Matthias Jaissle could be quite volatile at times. The Toon have scored six goals from an expected goals return of just three and have faced the most shots of any team this season, hinting at an overperformance.”
Interesting analysis, as always, from the Sky Sports expert. As ever, backing up his arguments with relevant statistics. At the same time though, stats can be misleading. Newcastle might have faced more shots than any other Premier League team in the first three rounds of matches but I can’t remember too many big chances for the opposition. Most of those shots have been from distance, especially against Spurs and Liverpool, not too many on target. In those two matches, Lukas Hornicek wasn’t forced to make many big saves. In the first half of he Bournemouth match the opposition did play really well, scoring twice and it could have been more, but even then in the second half Newcastle recovered to be the better team after the break.
The Sky Sports expert having this to say about our opponents: “Leeds are a reliable team to bet on. You know exactly what you’re going to get. Usually that means Daniel Farke’s team avoiding defeat which is what they’ve done in 11 of their last 12 Premier League games. They defend with great organisation and attack with authority. I do like that home win but I also like the prospects of Matias Fernandez-Pardo drawing cards for Newcastle. He could be in line for his first start having come off the bench in the last two games in all competitions. The £51m signing was Lille’s main man in Ligue 1 last season and drew 15 cards in just over 3,000 minutes of action – an impressive strike-rate.”
Struggle to disagree with much, if any, of that.
As the Sky Sports man points out, Leeds have indeed lost only one of their last 12 EPL matches. However, they have only won five of them, drawing the other six. Also, this season they have only scored one goal in each of their three Premier League games and in the last 12 only four times have they scored more than one goal.
Newcastle United have managed to score two goals in each of their three Premier League matches this season and if they can do so again I think NUFC will win.