I have tried to set out an objective view of where Newcastle United are and can be, within the 2030 timeframe that David Hopkinson has set out following his strategic review of the club.
The End of the Beginning
Having completed a 100-day review, David Hopkinson set out his vision for the club as “consistently contending for the top prizes in global football by 2030”. His position – which he followed up at a recent FT event – has sparked debate and commentary.
A CEO needs to set out an ambition, but having lost the derby, exited the Champions League and with the likelihood of finishing outside the top 7, let alone the financial chasm we face, that seems highly unrealistic.
I wanted to set out an objective view of the first phase of PIF ownership and six expectations that he should be held accountable to as we enter phase two.
The Financial Chasm
We all know that after fourteen years of prior neglect that we’ve been playing catch-up, but the recent Deloitte figures show just how big the “Financial League” gap remains. While our financial growth post-takeover leads the market in percentage terms, in total revenue terms we are still between £156m and £367m behind the so-called Big 6:
The ‘Big Six’ and Newcastle United finances:
| Club | 2021 | 2025 | % Growth | Actual Growth | Gap to NUFC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | £462m | £702m | 34% | £240m | £367m |
| Manchester City | £542m | £696m | 22% | £154m | £361m |
| Arsenal | £308m | £690m | 55% | £382m | £355m |
| Manchester United | £469m | £666m | 30% | £197m | £331m |
| Tottenham Hotspur | £341m | £565m | 40% | £224m | £230m |
| Chelsea | £414m | £491m | 16% | £77m | £156m |
| Newcastle United | £143m | £335m | 57% | £192m |
Data relates to 24/25. Conversion applied at the Deloitte report standard of €1 = £0.84.
The club must surely be planning for a scenario in which we do not secure European football for next season. On a worst-case basis, this will result in a reduced Premier League merit payout of £10m plus versus 24/25 and the need to offset more than £60m received from participation in this years’ Champions League.
A deeper look at Hopkinson’s track record suggests that a clinical edge resides below the upbeat exterior. Now is the time to see it. Having delivered what was understood to be a forensically detailed 400-page report and growth plan to the PIF, we should, towards the end of this season, see an extended commercial team start to deliver the first in a wave of new deals including unbundling and expanding existing agreements and establish new partnerships across a series of to date, open categories.
Expectation 1 – Sustained Commercial Delivery
The 2030 metric to hold Hopkinson accountable to is increasing our commercial revenues to in excess of £300m (£117m in 24/25). This is stretching but feasible, given Arsenal grew their commercial revenues by £135m over a five-year period where benchmarks have increased across the board. As Man City’s recent deals with BYD and Revolut show, the B6 won’t sit still and it is unrealistic to expect parity in four years.
He must prove that several dozen brands place value in a relationship with the club alongside further deals with PIF portfolio companies. That, plus the use of data to target specific underserved international markets is critical if we are to enhance our wage capacity whilst managing the club to the new SCR ratios. No European football would mean alignment to the 85% domestic limit rather than 70%.
Infrastructure: A Marathon, not a Sprint
Phase one of PIF ownership deployed £60m to address the infrastructure that they inherited. Given such spend is not included within financial regulations, let alone the commercial opportunities that can be unlocked as a result, it is understandable that many have and continue to question why there has not been tangible progress beyond high-end patch ups.
When it comes to physical infrastructure, PIFs track record is of extreme deliberation. The reality is that for projects on the scale of a fully integrated training hub and a multi-billion-pound stadium expansion / re-development, the sign-off criteria will be for world-leading facilities designed for 2040 and beyond.
Expectation 2 – Training Ground:
We should expect a formal announcement this year for a £200m+ elite facility at Woolsington to be ready by 2030. The timing of which will, I hope, be linked to a long-awaited training kit agreement. This presents a clear opportunity to quash the “PIF is losing interest in NUFC” narrative. If not, then “the project” will remain no more than words.
Expectation 3 – Stadium:
Whether it’s a redevelopment or a brand-new build (my preference), ribbons won’t be cut before 2033 as:
The club have promised UEFA no major disruption until the end of Euro 2028, and;
City centre planning is a logistical labyrinth, presenting arguably the biggest hurdle for Chief Operating Officer Brad Miller to navigate if the North-West of the city is to be regenerated as part of a wider transformation plan.
The commercial impact from a stadium with the flexibility to deliver significant revenues outside match days is why 2033 is in my view the true milestone to focus on, albeit one that will test the patience of many. The facts speak for themselves as shown by the example of Tottenham, where, since moving into their new stadium, matchday income has increased by 150%, with non-football related events generating in the region of £55m per year. Their revenue to wage ratio of 44% also shows the dangers of financial performance outweighing on-field performance….
Stick or twist
David Hopkinson and Ross Wilson have stated on multiple occasions that Eddie Howe has their full support and it seems that he will remain in role for next season and beyond should he still wish to. Given our current league position and recent results, it is understandable that those seeking a change of manager are increasing in noise and number.
The market for managers will be as interesting as that for players following the World Cup. Succession planning should be an ongoing activity for Ross Wilson regardless of performance and I would point to interesting options across three categories, those in the first two being / are about to become free agents:
High Press – Roberto De Zerbi or Andoni Iraola
Possession heavy, game control – Xabi Alonso* or Xavi Hernandez
Flexible formations, use of analytics – Julian Nagelsmann or Cesc Fabregas
*Seems set for Liverpool
My personal view is that Eddie Howe remains the right man to take the club forward into phase two, but want to see clear signs of him learning from errors through the last 7 games of the season.
Righting the wrongs
We had as close to a near-perfect run from the takeover to Summer 2023 as I can recall in my lifetime, since when we have lurched between highs of twice qualifying for the Champions League and a first trophy in living memory to two major mistakes:
1. PSR Mis-management: Selling Yankuba Minteh and specifically Elliot Anderson to appease an accounting principle was a bitter pill to swallow; and
2. Leadership Void: Going into Summer 2025 without a CEO* or Sporting Director was negligence on the part of the owners turning what should have been our first proactive window in two years into a headline writers dream that ended in scattergun fashion.
* Wishing Darren Eales all the best
Set and maintain a clear trading plan
The era of the all-encompassing manager is gone. Ross Wilson must now lead proactive player trading through multiple transfer windows. Not adding at least one defender to bolster the squad in January was hugely frustrating and we have to hope that he used the time to line up key summer transfers from across Europe and South America* given our inability to sign ‘Premier League Proven’ players and the added complexity of the pending World Cup. There is money to spend, but much to do. This is the acid test for the Hopkinson-Wilson-Howe triumvirate and informs my final three expectations:
Expectation 4 – Sell to buy
Paul Mitchell’s short-lived tenure was defined by stark, uncomfortable messaging. The reality is that he was right to focus on global data-led scouting, and selective trading of players before they pass their “ceiling”. We will need to get used to selling first team players through multiple windows until European football becomes the norm rather than a biennial occurrence.
Who we sell, which I expect to be Livramento and one of Gordon or Tonali this summer, who we retain, ideally including expanded deals for Guimares, Hall and Miley and how we do so, will tell us everything about our new leadership teams resolve, alignment and ability to “take care of business”.
Expectation 5 – Address the spine of the first XI
We have consistently been found wanting at both ends of the pitch which was and remains our priority, meaning a need for:
An out and out No 1 goalkeeper – Will we finally land Trafford?
Two strikers who can lead the press and run in behind – We will simply have to take the hit on Wissa, Woltemade (who is not a midfielder and I have sympathy for) and likely trade Osula too.
Expectation 6 – Thanks, and best wishes
Just as we have ended phase one of PIF ownership, the cycle of the current squad has run its course. Kieran Trippier, Fabian Schär and Dan Burn have performed wonders and will always be warmly welcomed back at St James’, but there is no room, nor time for sentiment. They alongside the likes of Pope, Krafth and Willock need to be moved on.
Hopkinson says a vision without a timeline is “fantasy” and so the following is what I consider “success” to be by 2030:
Performance
Work consistently across multiple windows to build a squad with an average age of 27 whose core leadership group is continually enhanced and able to compete across four fronts.
Secure back-to-back Top 4 finishes, breaking the “yo-yo” effect of biennial European qualification.
Financial
Commercial revenue over £300m via 25+ categories.
Total revenues in excess of £650m.
Wage bill at 65% of revenue ensures UEFA compliance plus the ability to tactically compete for “Premier League Proven” players with The Big 6.
Infrastructure
£200m+ Centre of Excellence completed.
70,000-seater stadium project underway.
Purchase of a European sister club to expand our player development / trading strategy.