Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.
To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.
These Expected Goals stats from Newcastle United 3 Brighton 1:
Newcastle United 3.25 Brighton 1.64
As you can see, Newcastle’s Expected Goals stat was double that of Brighton’s.
I think a lot of Newcastle fans have become too focused on the negatives and even if it is subconsciously, struggle to remember the reality.
Brighton played some nice football, had twice as much possession (67% v 33%), BUT Newcastle United created more and better clear chances.
Newcastle United defended really well for most of the match and Nick Pope made a couple of outstanding saves. Yankuba missed a sitter as well.
However, in reality United had far better/more and as well as the there goals, we saw the likes of Wissa miss the target with just the keeper to beat and Thiaw had the easiest chance of all, failing to beat the keeper from just five yards out.
It appears that some Newcastle United fans want to believe we were lucky to get the win but reality is that when you really nail it down to creating goalscoring opportunities, United comfortably deserved the victory.
At Arsenal it was a similar story, though not quite as clear as the Brighton match. Last weekend it was Arsenal with an expected goals stat (0.64) almost 50% lower than Newcastle’s (0.91) but a stunning long range effort won it for the Gunners, whilst the likes of Osula, Burn, Tonali and especially Wissa failed with their chances.
As usual on Saturday, there was no lack of effort from the Newcastle United players. The United players ran a total of 110.27km, whilst it was 108.07 for the Brighton players. The failings this season have tended to be down to a lack of inspiration and not perspiration. Lack of effort hasn’t been at fault.