Newcastle United take on Manchester City this Saturday night.
As always, one thing is for sure.
In the build up to the match we will repeatedly hear negative statistics quoted, suggesting (proving?) why Newcastle United are sure to lose to Manchester City.
As always with statistics, it often depends on which ones you choose to use.
There are of course a lot of negative ones that can be presented.
Such as…
Newcastle United have won only four of their last 44 matches against Manchester City.
Manchester City have won all of their last 13 games against Newcastle United at the Etihad.
However, there are other ways the statistics can be presented. Indeed, what I would consider the most relevant stats.
For starters, most of the negative stats you will hear repeated, the long-term ones, are overwhelmingly made up of matches played in a time period when it was the very best of times for Manchester City AND the very worst for Newcastle United.
The statistics usually quoted, are basically the last couple of decades, which include 15 seasons that Newcastle United kicked off under Mike Ashley, whilst all but a couple of years in the last 20, Manchester City under this current ownership.
I just don’t see the relevance in the vast majority of these statistics, United under an owner who did everything he could to hold NUFC back for a decade and a half, whilst at the same time Man City under ownership that were doing the exact opposite.
Newcastle United managed by mostly Ashley stooges, the likes of McClaren, Bruce, Carver, JFK, Pardew…
In the most recent 28 matches between the two clubs before Mike Ashley bought NUFC, we saw 13 Newcastle United wins, seven draws and eight Manchester City wins. From summer 2007 to the present day it is four Newcastle United wins, six draws and 34 Man City victories.
It obviously still isn’t a fair fight these days, the rules now constructed specifically to stop Newcastle United doing what the likes of Manchester City did to turn themselves into serial trophy winners.
However, recent years have seen the current Newcastle United owners and especially Eddie Howe, make it a little more of a fairer fight.
Rather than what happened during a decade and a half of Mike Ashley, these to me are the most relevant statistics, the most relevant matches, ahead of this FA Cup fifth round match.
Newcastle United 3 Manchester City 3 (21 August 2022)
Newcastle United 1 Manchester City 0 (27 September 2023)
Newcastle United 2 Manchester City 3 (13 January 2024)
Newcastle United 1 Manchester City 1 (28 September 2024)
Newcastle United 2 Manchester City 1 (22 November 2025)
Newcastle United 0 Manchester City 2 (13 January 2026)
Yes, the last six St James’ Park matches between the two sides, producing two Newcastle United wins, two draws and two Manchester City victories.
These results don’t even really do Newcastle United justice, compared to the performances.
United should have won that 3-3 match, far the better team and leading. The 3-2 defeat had seen Newcastle leading with less than 20 minutes to go and in the end the Man City winning goal deep in added time. Even that last match in January, that was a night when all the fine margins went against Newcastle and Eddie Howe’s team had at least the same amount of big chances, just didn’t take them.
I never understand why some Newcastle United fans get so negative ahead of these matches at St James’ Park. Of course our record (recent and not so recent) is appalling at the Etihad, although NUFC were very unlucky to lose there 2-1 last month.
However, when it comes to Eddie Howe and his team at St James’ Park, every reason to believe that they can give Manchester City a tough game (indeed in November, it should have been a winning margin of three or more goals, not ‘just’ 2-1) and if those fine margins at last fall our way, into the last eight of the FA Cup is very much possible for Newcastle United.