There’s one question on every Newcastle United fan’s mind ahead of the summer transfer window… How much will the club be able to spend on new signings?
The summer transfer window is quickly approaching, with Newcastle United able to start making new signings from June 1.
Eddie Howe’s side are closing in on securing their place in the Champions League for the 2025-26 season, which should open the door for Newcastle to make some exciting signings.
The Magpies haven’t been able to spend much of PIF’s money in recent windows due to tight PSR restrictions, which also forced them to sell Elliot Anderson and Yankuba Minteh to avoid breaching.
After not spending much money over the last season, Newcastle must strengthen the squad this summer if they want to compete in the Champions League and make it past the league phase.
Below, GRV Media’s resident financial expert, Adam Williams, has explained roughly how big a loss Newcastle can operate under in 2025-26 with PSR rules and, as a result, how much they could spend on new players.
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How much Newcastle United can lose under PSR restrictions in 2025-26
Newcastle aren’t going to have carte blanche to spend whatever they please under PSR this summer, but they doubtless have more freedom than in several previous windows.
2024-25 has been a season of restraint in the transfer market. They have ended the season with a positive player trading balance.
Because new signings are amortised over five years for PSR purposes, whereas sales hit the balance sheet immediately, the outgoings are worth more than they might immediately seem – in the short term, at least.
However, Newcastle technically got the deals for Anderson and Minteh done in 2023-24, so the profit on those player sales was booked last season. That’s immaterial really, though, as 2023-24 still counts towards their three-year PSR calculation.
The wage bill will have fallen significantly in 2024-25 due to not having played European football in the season, with its associated bonuses to players. That might be diluted slightly by the Carabao Cup bonuses, but on a net basis, the total wage bill will definitely have fallen.
Commercial income will have increased quite significantly with the new Adidas deal.
Matchday will probably remain steady. They had no European football ticketing opportunities but they have improved the matchday experience, upgraded hospitality and found more ways to get fans to part with their cash.
Overall, they’re still going to be at a significant operating loss, but probably not as steep as the last two seasons. My guess is that they will probably post a loss of about £50m or thereabouts.
So with 2023-24’s £11m loss plus PSR-exempt expenses like academy, infrastructure and women’s team investment, they will be at about a £40m PSR loss.
These are very rough figures, but it gives you a flavour of where they are at.
So that would mean Newcastle can make a £65m PSR loss in 2025-26 and still comply with Premier League rules.
They will have European revenues of some form next season too. If that’s Champions League money, they’re likely to get £60-70m, plus added matchday income and the retail boom that brings.
How much will Newcastle United spend on new players in the transfer window?
All in all, I think it’s a very positive picture for Newcastle.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they go and spend net £100m, £150m or potentially even more this summer, especially given that £20-30m of that would hit their PSR balance in 2025-26 as amortised costs.
If the season is going poorly, they can always recalibrate in January or before the PSR deadline on 30th June next year and player-trade accordingly.
Crucially, they have the muscle to be able to retain their best players, too.
Where things get more complicated is UEFA’s distinct rules, which Newcastle will have to comply with, given that they will play in European competition next season.
They may well fail the allowable loss rules, but several clubs have been willing to just absorb the fine for that – it won’t be very significant.
The squad cost rule, which limits spending as a percentage of earnings, will be more challenging, but that’s on a calendar-year basis, so again Newcastle can recalibrate in summer 2026 depending on where they are.
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