Opinion: Outcome of Tyne-Wear derby is obvious as Newcastle United and Sunderland records clash

Written on Thursday, 11 December 2025
Jakob Barnes

Newcastle United and Sunderland go head-to-head this weekend for the first league meeting between the two sides since 2016.

It’s been a long time coming, but we finally have another Tyne-Wear derby to look forward to. And, given the way the season is playing out, it’s a tantalising fixture for both teams.

Newcastle United have picked up some impressive results of late and are now breathing down the necks of their North East rivals.

How has Newcastle United’s win over Burnley made you feel about next week’s trip to Sunderland? 👀

To me, it feels like the win over West Ham before the cup final. Far from pretty, but does raise some confidence…

Photo by Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images
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Indeed, a win on Sunday at the Stadium of Light would see the Magpies leapfrog Sunderland and close the gap on the Champions League spots.

However, defeat would be a disaster for Eddie Howe and co. as the fans are desperate to regain some bragging rights from their noisy neighbours.

Sunderland v Rayo Vallecano - Pre-season Friendly
Photo by Michael Driver/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images

You can count on a score draw and a late goal in Tyne-Wear derby

To the delight of both sets of fans and neutrals alike, we can almost guarantee there will be goals in the upcoming clash.

For a start, in the last eight Premier League games, Newcastle have both scored and conceded a goal. This is the second-longest run of this kind for the Magpies, with a stretch of 13 games with goals for both sides coming running between December 1960 and March 1961.

With Anthony Gordon in top form right now and Nick Woltemade a constant threat, it’s easy to see where the goals will come from for Newcastle.

Meanwhile, Sunderland are outperforming their xG this season quite substantially. They currently stand at 18 goals scored, but their xG of 13 in the league is the second-worst in the division, ahead of only Burnley. Clearly, they find a way to get the ball in the net.

Our second prediction based on what we have seen this season is that there will almost certainly be some late drama. A late goal cost Newcastle again on Wednesday night against Leverkusen, and the Magpies have thrown away a few leads in the Premier League, too.

Indeed, the 11 points squandered by Newcastle this term when in a winning position is more than any other team in the division. In contrast, Sunderland have gained the most points from losing positions (12), so it looks nailed on that the Black Cats will grab a goal late on to frustrate Newcastle.

So, that’s a score draw, with late goals, and one more thing we can throw into the mix is the odds that there will probably be a penalty. The referee for the Tyne-Wear derby has already given Newcastle two this season, and one against them. Hopefully, the next one goes the Magpies’ way.

Name the four missing players from our starting lineup when we last played Sunderland in the Premier League!

One is still at the club!

Newcastle United's starting lineup vs Sunderland in March 2016.
Credit: GRV Media.
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Is a draw a good result for Newcastle United?

Let’s assume we are looking at a score draw on Sunday. Would that be enough to satisfy you as a Newcastle United fan? I would guess the answer is a resounding no.

Indeed, Newcastle fans didn’t really mind what the result was against Leverkusen, they only wanted to see a win against Sunderland.

If Newcastle cannot beat Sunderland this season and end the weekend still sitting below them in the league table, it will be a miserable week at work for any Magpies fans.

Eddie Howe has to ensure the mentality of his players is spot on and that they come away from the Stadium of Light with the kind of result that sends a message to Sunderland and the rest of the league.

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