Opta supercomputer changes its tune on Newcastle United with 3% boost

Written on Wednesday, 26 November 2025
Jakob Barnes

Newcastle United picked up a crucial win over Manchester City last weekend and those three points have helped the Magpies get a big boost in Opta’s predictions for the Premier League.

While most Newcastle United fans are going to be drowning their sorrows after that defeat to Marseille in the Champions League, there is still reason to be positive.

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The victory over Man City in the Premier League on Saturday was a significant step in the right direction for the Magpies, at least domestically.

Eddie Howe got his decisions right in that game, the players looked fired up, and while the win didn’t lift Newcastle up the table, it has improved the forecast for the season.

Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images

Newcastle United jump four places after win vs Man City

Just a fortnight ago, Newcastle were tipped to finish 12th in the Premier League and were given a 6% chance of securing Champions League qualification this season as per Opta’s supercomputer.

However, after that win over City, the Magpies’ chances have been reassessed and it’s looking a lot more positive.

The supercomputer now predicts Eddie Howe can guide Newcastle to an eighth place finish this season. While that would still be a little disappointing, it’s a great deal better than where the Magpies were heading last week.

Interestingly, the odds of Newcastle landing a Champions League spot have increased, too. Admittedly, it’s not a lot, but they’ve gone from roughly 6% to a 9.27% chance of finishing in the top four (or five, depending on UEFA’s co-efficiency rankings come the end of the season).

Newcastle are still massively behind the likes of Brighton (16%), Crystal Palace (30%), and Aston Villa (35%) when it comes to the Champions League race, but clearly, they’re heading in the right direction now.

Newcastle United FC v Everton FC - Premier League
Photo by Alex Dodd – CameraSport via Getty Images

What are Newcastle’s targets this season?

Before the season began, you’d have thought Newcastle would be looking to finish in the Champions League qualification places again, as well as making good progress in the cup competitions – perhaps even winning silverware again.

The poor start to the campaign has really dented the hopes of that, at least on the league front. But, PIF have faith Newcastle can finish in the top six, still.

How far do you expect Newcastle United to go in the Champions League this season?

Even that will take some doing from this point, but Newcastle definitely have what it takes to put together a good run and climb that table.

Newcastle have a tough run of games coming up, but if they can pick up good results across those five matches and head into Christmas in a strong position, the momentum will be huge.

Newcastle may well fall short of pre-season expectations, but that doesn’t mean this season won’t be a success, of sorts.

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