Since West Ham went down in 2003 with 42 points, the average points tally for the third bottom club in the Premier League is 34 and not 40 as folklore suggests.
The Editor wrote an article on the The Mag yesterday questioning whether Newcastle United are truly in danger of being relegated to the Championship, rightly pointing out that the best way of ending this speculation is for a convincing win on Saturday against Brighton.
I am imagining that happens…
Although current form and our recent lamentable results against Brighton at Gallowgate, the last win against the seagulls coming almost three years ago when we all but made sure of Champions League qualification, making this a tough examination for Eddie Howe and Newcastle United.
With four games to go, I’m also assuming 42 points won’t relegate Newcastle United, so in theory we can lose all of our remaining fixtures. Clearly, not something anyone associated with the club wants to aspire to and that would represent a set of results, coming on the back of nine league defeats in our last twelve outings that will put immense pressure on the manager. Put it this way, if we can’t get a couple of points from Brighton and West Ham at home, Forest and Fulham away, we probably don’t deserve to be in the Premier League next season.
But that isn’t entirely the point. For the first time since 2003 a team with 42 points is being touted as possible Premier League relegation fodder.
I’ve looked back at the final table for that 2002/03 season when West Ham were relegated with 42 points and the similarities with this season are striking. Back then, two clubs, the Mackems and West Bromwich Albion were well adrift, in a not too dissimilar position to the one that Burnley and Wolves find themselves in. West Ham meanwhile, lost their Premier League status because they were two points adrift of Bolton Wanderers, although the Hammers were only ten points from eighth placed Southampton. As the Editor pointed out, Newcastle United are currently as close to our sixth placed opponent on Saturday as we are to third bottom Tottenham, so that compressed look to the table is apparent once again.
Four games out that season, West Ham had it all to do and managed to amass ten points from those remaining fixtures, with three wins and a draw, that draw coming in their final game at St Andrews, whilst Bolton beat the Boro at the Reebok.
This season, Spurs have it all to do and their run in looks very difficult, with the added complication of the FA Cup Final involving their opponent in game week 37, meaning that the North London side are very likely needing to get something from away fixtures at Stamford Bridge and the Hill Dickinson in the final days of the season.
Whether Chelsea win the cup or not, and leaving aside the poor run of form they’ve been on, relegating Tottenham will be a huge incentive for them to plunder all three points.
Newcastle United of course, have fixtures against two of the clubs still more likely to fall through the trap door into the Championship – West Ham at home and Forest away. Whether or not we see ourselves as candidates for the drop, United will have a significant say in proceedings. In addition, Spurs have to travel to Elland Road and West Ham also entertain Leeds, so there’s plenty of points to be lost as well as won by those in a more perilous situation than us.