Ahead of the first legs of the Champions League last 16 matches, Opta made predictions on the chances of each of the six Premier League clubs reaching the quarter finals.
The six last 16 ties involving English clubs were Galatasaray v Liverpool, Atletico Madrid v Tottenham, Newcastle United v Barcelona, Bayer Leverkusen v Arsenal, PSG v Chelsea, Real Madrid v Man City.
Ahead of the first legs, Opta gave these predictions on the chances of each of the half dozen progressing to the last eight: Arsenal 85.8%, Liverpool 82.3%, Man City 64.3%, Chelsea 53.3%, Tottenham46.3%, Newcastle United 44.7%.
These first leg matches have now been played out across Tuesday and Wednesday this midweek.
So how have the first leg results and performances affected the chances of the six Premier League clubs progressing to the Champions League quarter-finals?
These were the Champions League first leg results:
Tuesday 10 March
Galatasaray 1 Liverpool 0
Newcastle United 1 Barcelona 1
Atletico Madrid 5 Tottenham 2
Atalanta 1 Bayern Munich 6
Wednesday 11 March
Bayer Leverkusen 1 Arsenal 1
Real Madrid 3 Manchester City 0
Bodo/Glimt 3 Sporting Lisbon 0
PSG 5 Chelsea 2
Opta have now reacted to these first leg results, with BBC Sport reporting the updated predicted chances.
Updated predicted chances of the six Premier League clubs reaching the Champions League quarter-finals (in brackets, what the predictions were before the first legs:
77.9% Arsenal (85.8%)
53.8% Liverpool (82.3%)
32.2% Newcastle United (44.7%)
9.4% Man City (64.3%)
7.3% Chelsea (53.3%)
3.3% Tottenham (46.3%)
Some interesting changes…
Now thoughts turn to next week.
Champions League last 16 second leg matches
Tuesday 17 March
Sporting Lisbon v Bodo/Glimt (5.45pm)
Manchester City v Real Madrid (8pm)
Chelsea v PSG (8pm)
Arsenal v Bayer Leverkusen (8pm)
Wednesday 18 March
Barcelona v Newcastle United (5.45pm)
Liverpool v Galatasaray (8pm)
Tottenham v Atletico Madrid (8pm)
Bayern Munich v Atalanta (8pm)
The dates of when all the remaining Champions League rounds will be played, are listed below:
Round of 16 second leg: 17/18 March 2026
Quarter-finals: 7/8 and 14/15 April 2026
Semi-finals: 28/29 April and 5/6 May 2026
Final: 30 May 2026 (To be held in Budapest)