Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.
To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.
These Expected Goals stats (via Understat) from Coventry City 4 Newcastle United 1:
Coventry City 1.66 Newcastle United 2.22
As you can see, Newcastle’s Expected Goals stat is significantly higher than Coventry’s, despite the 4-1 scoreline.
You also have to factor in that when it comes to the 1.66 Coventry City Expected Goals stat, almost half of that (around 0.79) is the likelihood of scoring the penalty (so seen as roughly a 79% chance of scoring a spot-kick). Reality is that Coventry had far less clear chances than Newcastle United and the other three goals they scored were from distance and with defenders around etc. Whereas Newcastle had loads of chances they didn’t take AND ironically scored their one goal from pretty much their most difficult shooting chance of all! That Botman long range rocket.
Across the entire weekend, only four other Premier League teams (Arsenal, Palace, Forest, Everton) had a higher Expected Goals stat than Newcastle United. Matthias Jaissle’s players were simply incapable of converting so many excellent chances into goals.
When you look at the other stats below, they back up the fact that Newcastle United could and should have not just avoided defeat but should have won, based on the chances created at both ends.
Newcastle compared to Coventry had more possession (67% v 33%), more shots (19 v 9), more corners (6 v 2) and more touches of the ball in the opposition penalty area (39 v 16).
The only stat where Coventry had parity was shots on target, they managed six on target out of nine and hit the post with one of the other three, Newcastle with only six of nineteen on target.
Coventry 4 Newcastle 1 – Monday 12 October 2026 8pm
Match Stats
Goals:
Botman 70
Coventry:
Rudoni 6 pen, Cherif 48, Simms 81, Mfuni 86
Possession was Newcastle 67% Coventry 33%
Total shots were Newcastle 19 Coventry 9
Shots on target were Newcastle 6 Coventry 6
Corners were Newcastle 6 Coventry 2
Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 39 Coventry 16
Newcastle team v Coventry:
Hornicek, Thiaw, Botman, Hall, Lewis Miley (Dedic 59), Gonzalez, Willock (Joelinton 59), Murphy (Toure 59 (Burn 90)), Wissa (Osula 78), Barnes, Fernandez-Pardo
Unused subs:
Pope, Schar, Bamba, Steur