This is why Arsenal are going to win the Premier League, probably

Written on Sunday, 26 April 2026
Mark Jensen

The final scoreline read Arsenal 1 Newcastle United 0 as the Gunners went back to the top of the table.

They didn’t deserve the victory but this match summed up why Mikel Arteta and his team are going to win the Premier League, probably.

Arsenal have the best defence in the Premier League and they have individuals who can produce moments of brilliance to win matches, even (especially?) matches where they aren’t the better team.

I wouldn’t say Newcastle United were clearly better than the opposition on Saturday but certainly deserved at least a point.

Arsenal have now conceded only 11 goals in 17 Premier League home games and only 26 in total in 34 PL matches home and away. Both of these low totals of goals conceded are comfortably the lowest of any Premier League team this season.

At the other end of the pitch, the Gunners are the ultimate set-piece specialists and also have players to pull out moments of brilliance. Those two things combined perfectly on Saturday to produce the moment that won the game.

Arsenal surprised everybody, especially the Newcastle United defence, when getting two early corners in quick succession but instead of delivering it into the penalty areas as usual, from which they score so many of their goals, the Gunners worked it short both times. They caught United on the hop both times and the away side didn’t get enough players out to the opposition quickly enough.

The Arsenal fans groaned both times as the players looked ponderous in their execution of this rare short corner tactic. However, a third short corner in quick succession saw Newcastle yet again fail to get enough players out to defend the short corner swiftly enough and Eze produced a brilliant match winning finish from long range that Nick Pope had zero chance of saving.

This was a match most definitely won on the training ground and the credit overwhelmingly going to Arsenal’s much-vaunted set-piece specialist.

Mikel Arteta detailed this after the narrow win: “When teams [such as Newcastle United] are so physical that they can defend naturally, you have to find other ways [to score at corners]. The thing that I like best is the courage of the players because we play it short [for the first two corners] and you can see the reaction in the crowd. On the third one, courage, big courage.”

Arsenal went back into their shell after this and Mikel Arteta was forced to defend his negative tactics that could and should have cost them at least two points. Newcastle with the better and clearer chances. As well as long range efforts from distance, including one from Tonali that Raya brilliantly saved, both Osula and Wissa had very good chances inside the box with only the Arsenal keeper to beat. Neither chance was an absolute sitter but they were very good chances and the best two in the match for either side.

Mikel Arteta spiky in his defence of the negative tactics he employed that should have cost his team a valuable 2+ points: “I don’t expect after 22 years of not winning [the Premier League title] that it is going to be a path of roses and beautiful music around it.”

The simple fact is that if both Man City and Arsenal win all of their remaining games, there will surely be only one winner if it comes down to goals scored. No doubt Mikel Arteta seeing his best chance of winning this elusive title most likely to come from the conservative tactics he favours.

As for Newcastle United, I thought we played well.

I thought Eddie Howe set his team and tactics up well against Arsenal, which is usually the case when playing against Mikel Arteta. It was then down to whether the execution of the manager’s plan would be good enough from the players.

Apart from the poor defending of those early corners and the failure to take chances when they came our way, I thought Newcastle United executed Howe’s game plan well.

Considering the context, the recent results, I am guessing that like myself, most of you thought this could get very messy when Eze scored that early goal.

I thought the team showed good character and with Bruno back alongside Tonali, the most important (back together) partnership in this Newcastle United team saw NUFC win the midfield battle. No mean feat against the likes of Declan Rice and the 55% possession stat for Newcastle United underlined this, away from home against the likely Premier League title winners. Yesterday also underlined just how important Bruno Guimaraes is to this Newcastle team. When Tonali and Bruno play together it then almost guarantees they play better as individuals, as well as how they combine for the team and make the rest of their teammates look better as well. Having two such high quality clever players who will always take the ball, even when under pressure, makes NUFC so much more of a force.

I thought the defence were also good. I can’t remember Arsenal having a single chance from inside the box and after the goal, none of the long range efforts ever looked like leading to a second goal for the home side.

Playing against the best defence in the Premier League, Newcastle needed to take one of their chances and/or get a bit of luck. Neither happened and this is why NUFC came away with nothing.

I was amused to see one United fan saying that if this had been the Newcastle team of last season, then they would have won for sure against this nervous Arsenal side.

The reality is that this performance AND result was almost a carbon copy of this exact same fixture last season. On 18 May 2025, Newcastle played their final away game of the season at Arsenal and lost 1-0.

That wasn’t the only similarity.

Tonali and Bruno bossed the midfield (United with 48% possession compared to 55% yesterday).

Newcastle United with more shots (13 v 11 yesterday in favour of NUFC, compared to 14 v 12 last season).

Arsenal only had one serious threat to Newcastle’s goal when Rice’s stunning goal from long range curled away from Nick Pope giving him no chance to win the game (as Eze did yesterday).

Newcastle United failed to take advantage of having more and better chances, including from inside the box, actually even more and better chances in May 2025 than yesterday.

Newcastle United without a striker on the pitch who had the killer instinct (last season Alexander Isak declared himself unavailable for that Arsenal away game, for whatever reason).

Last season, Newcastle United were actually favourites to finish Premier League runners-up ahead of that away game against Arsenal. The Gunners had only won one of their last six PL matches, whilst Newcastle went into that final away game of the season having won eight and drawn one of their last ten matches. Seven wins, one draw and one defeat in their last nine PL matches, plus the cup final victory over Liverpool.

Newcastle United deserved at least a point at the Emirates in May 2025 but ended up losing and eventually finished fifth, Arsenal runners-up to Liverpool.

Newcastle United deserved at least a point at the Emirates yesterday but ended up making it four PL defeats in a row, five in all competitions. Some Newcastle fans raising the spectre of potential relegation now, as relegation threatened Forest, West Ham and Spurs have all won this weekend.

I am not fearing relegation but I do think there is a clear need for Newcastle United to build on yesterday’s more encouraging performance, show more of the same in these final four matches AND pick up positive results.

Brighton are pretty much the most in form team, four wins and a draw in their last five PL matches, six wins and a draw with only the one defeat (to Arsenal) in their last eight.

It won’t be easy next Saturday but I think Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali are capable of leading Newcastle United to a much-needed victory against the Seagulls. This won’t make everything right BUT what it would do is remind everybody that this Newcastle team are still capable of giving performances and getting results, kickstarting a bit of momentum and confidence as we approach a huge summer ahead that can help dictate what NUFC can be capable of next season.

Arsenal 1 Newcastle 0 – Saturday 25 April 2026 5.30pm

Match Stats

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Arsenal:

Eze 9

Possession was Newcastle 55% Arsenal 45%

Total shots were Newcastle 13 Arsenal 11

Shots on target were Newcastle 3 Arsenal 4

Corners were Newcastle 2 Arsenal 7

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 19 Arsenal 27

Newcastle team v Arsenal:

Pope, Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Burn, Bruno (Woltemade 75), Tonali, Ramsey, Willock (Elanga 86), Jacob Murphy (Barnes 66), Osula (Wissa 66)

Unused subs:

Ramsdale, Trippier, Hall, Alex Murphy, Neave

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