It feels like there’s a lot to get on a downer about these days.
There is of course a lot of this in the wider world but I’m not going to subvert the intended purpose of The Mag by going into that. I meant from a Newcastle United perspective and that alone is enough of a belly full.
Of course, the gazumping of Victor Munoz was the main incident in suggesting this transfer window could be another unmitigated disaster, but supporting evidence has come in the form of Tottenham’s being used to smoke out actual bidders – I mean actually being a serious contender for Tonali and Arsenal allegedly sniffing round Bruno (less likely but if it does happen I cannot say how many weeks I will need in my pitch black crying room).
Anything about Elliott Anderson makes me personally a bit queasy, given the ridiculous circumstances we were forced to sell him in, the poxy fee we received and the lack of any sell-on in this colossal transfer.
Throw in that Manchester City will have him nailed down in a way he’s unlikely to ever return to Newcastle and it’s actually bittersweet to watch a young Geordie bossing the England midfield at a World Cup.
All of this of course plays out to a backdrop of no noise in terms of incomings, at least since the early securing of a lad who apparently won’t instantly be a first choice keeper anyway.
With the World Cup in full flow it’s very possible that decent Newcastle United business will be done later in the window, but I blame absolutely nobody for being concerned that the summer window may be another bust, with damaging outgoings complemented by missed targets and ultimately desperate signings that point more towards a relegation battle than a triumphant return to Europe.
It’s even difficult to take positives from Yoane Wissa and Anthony Elanga becoming only the second and third Newcastle players (after Alan Shearer) to score in multiple World Cup matches. Both are having fine tournaments but the general response from Newcastle United fans has been dismay that such form hasn’t been recreated on Tyneside and an expectation that it never will be in spite of this recent evidence. The season just gone has deflated the mood so much that optimism is on the floor, unfortunately.
Elanga and Wissa are pretty important case studies as it’s surely close to unanimous as it stands that both have been poor returns for the vast outlay on each of them. Were this World Cup to provide the kicker for a revelatory second season, this may flip the narrative a considerable amount, although there are a few elements of this particular narrative that need corrected toot suite. It’s alright, I’m here.
Those of you with a smaller internet presence (and by extension a more peaceful life) may be broadly unaware of the raw naked nonsense that is piffled, waffled and splurged out there on the information superhighway related to Newcastle United and football in general.
Current silliness includes the over-propagandised citizens of the USA claiming that the World Cup has been a colossal event because of their country being the main host, as opposed to the fact that it’s the biggest sporting event in the world and it’s always been like that Chad/Zach/Tanner (they’re also starting to think they can win it).
Closer to home though, there are many myths, stories and fantasies that are given genuine oxygen via the means of constant repetition by the mischievous, reactionary and downright daft. It’s best to ignore and let them fester, but I thought I’d make a case study of one misrepresented “fact” I saw today.
So, some attention seeker online was having a pop at Eddie Howe and the overall Newcastle United transfer management, saying NUFC having a half a billion net spend (that he’d rounded up from around £400m) over the course of the past five seasons.
This was presented with the usual narrative, that United have wasted loads of money in a foiled bid to buy success with an outlay that should be competitive with the top six. Even using his figures…Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea have a net spend that is pretty much double that of Newcastle’s but let’s not dwell on that, nor the fact that based on his figures there were still five Premier League clubs (In order – Man U, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, with Man City seventh highest and just below Newcastle) in total that had higher net spends these past five years. This was the oft repeated line that Newcastle are simply not good at transfers and it’s our own fault that we are now crumbling to mid-table.
What a load of moonshine.
The reason this is such a lopsided figure in relation to our current squad is, in part, down to a similar source of any strife this club has encountered in recent times. Basically, that it wasn’t run to its maximum potential for 14 years, instead being used as a vehicle for promoting alternative businesses for the former owner. The subsequent economic shrinkage created the catch up situation we are now perennially in.
The Ashley era had two lasting effects that directly impact that net spend.
Firstly, there was a relative positive, in that Kind Mike’s frugal approach meant that there were oodles of PSR wiggle room to buy transformative players like Bruno, Botman and Isak. This outlay was duly spread across the first two years before a spot of poor calculation meant the desperate measures such as flogging some lad to Forest for a knockdown fee.
The other effect is the conveniently overlooked key factor here. Despite the initial extensive capacity to spend, there was very little remaining in the current squad to recycle into future incomings. Of the players inherited by Eddie Howe, some were essential to retain and improve. The likes of Schar, Murphy and Joelinton became vital parts of the squad, whereas selling them would bring only negligible returns. You only have to look at the net cost of replacing Wilson last summer to see how value had to be had in extracting the best from existing talent. Of the squad that was at United at the point of takeover only Longstaff, Almiron and Saint-Maximin brought in fees of £10m+. Small fees were clawed back when selling Shelvey and Darlow and Dubravka but piling up all of these inbounds would not amount to £50m. This is the crux of the spending point, Newcastle needed to build a team of worth without any real value to trade in.
Another daft argument you regularly see is people attaching fantastical fees to players who are never going for that much. You’ll all have heard someone saying “Sell Jacob Murphy for £30m and use the money on Rashford” or similar blether.
Some even hark back to the time Bayern Munich were apparently up for chucking us £6m for Kieran Trippier as a missed opportunity. I’d rather he stayed to deliver cup-winning corners than we cashed in for a fee that makes no difference thanks.
This is not an unconditional defence. The reason last summer stood out was because things had been managed so well up to then, with a series of hits in the market (including the likes of Lloyd Kelly and Yankuba Minteh who did bring back worthwhile profits). There’s debate as to who shoulders the most blame for it’s lack of success and the underwhelming season that followed but the knock-on effect has been that we are now anxiously enduring the summer window that needs to course correct that damage.
I would suggest around 75% of the net outlay was used across an 18 month period transforming Newcastle United from a basket case into a functioning and relatively successful Premier League team. The other 25% represents the mistakes made that have meant a slip from Champions League to mid-table isn’t acceptable.
There is work to do, for sure, so please can you all let me continue with my coping mechanism of ignoring all the negative noise for the summer by not making stuff up. If you must, there’s plenty really happening out there to whinge about.
You can follow the author on BlueSky @bigjimwinsalot.bsky.social