Newcastle United still qualify for the Champions League?
Have you lost your mind?
Well, no, at least not yet.
Whilst these last couple of weeks have been dominated for Newcastle United by this current 2025/26 Champions League campaign, something else has gone under the radar.
I think it would have been fair to say that for Newcastle United this season was now basically over, if NUFC had lost their last two Premier League matches.
They didn’t though. Two brilliant wins instead. Defeating third placed Man U with only ten men, then a quality victory away at Chelsea, who were then fifth in the table.
Surely though you cry, it is still impossible for Newcastle United to get Champions League…
Bonus fifth place
Newcastle United played in this season’s Champions League due to the Premier League getting a bonus fifth place in the competition.
Despite four of six English clubs exiting the Champions League this week, two others progressed, as did the three English clubs in the other UEFA competitions.
Ahead of this past week, the Premier League was basically nailed on to get a fifth UCL place next season. Now they are even more nailed on.
Only Spain and Portugal can now overtake England BUT it is all but impossible for both of them to do so. It would take a crazy set of results for the Premier League to miss out, so it will be England getting one of the two bonus fifth places for sure.
Premier League table on the morning of Saturday 20 March 2026
As you can see, Newcastle United currently seven points off fifth place. After this weekend’s matches, every chance that gap could be only five points, maybe four if we get really lucky.
Liverpool are away to Brighton today and Chelsea go to Everton. If Newcastle win against Sunderland, Liverpool lose to Brighton and Chelsea fail to beat Everton, United would be four points off fifth with seven games to play.
Even if Liverpool get a draw, so long as then Chelsea don’t win and Newcastle are victorious against the Mackems, then the gap from NUFC to fifth would still be only five points. Not impossible.
Things then get even more interesting with the Shields Gazette getting in touch with UEFA, who confirmed:
“If Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League and finish 5th and Aston Villa win the UEFA Europa League and finish 6th, the EPS would be awarded to the seventh-ranked club in the EPL, in accordance with Article 3.08 and 3.09 of the competition regulations.”
So there is even the possibility, of seventh place delivering Champions League football for Newcastle United!
Let’s have a look at…
What about the form the various teams are in?
I am not dismissing Brentford and Everton, especially as they both won very recently at St James’ Park! However, I wanted to concentrate on the club that most people would think Newcastle need to finish above (at least a couple of them), if they are to stand a chance of getting Champions League (especially if we are talking about needing to get top five to do so).
Liverpool have won only four of their last 12 Premier League matches. The scousers have Champions League and FA Cup distractions and as well as Brighton away today, they play five of the current top eight in their other seven remaining matches. Liverpool have to play Everton, Man U and Villa away, plus Chelsea and Brentford at home.
Chelsea have won six of their last 18 Premier League matches, won only one of their last five PL games. As well as Everton away, they also have to go to Brighton. As well as facing Man U, Man City and Liverpool. Chelsea also having FA Cup commitments.
Aston Villa are dropping like a stone and have Europa League distractions. Villa have lost their last three Premier League matches, have only won one of their last seven PL games. Their last two PL games of the season are Liverpool at home and Man City away.
Newcastle United have just won against Man U and Chelsea. With no distractions in other competitions, the remaining NUFC fixtures are against Sunderland (currently 13th in the table), Palace (14th), Bournemouth (10th), Arsenal (1st), Brighton (12th), Forest (17th), West Ham (18th) and Fulham (11th).
Not an impossible scenario that United end up playing a number of teams who by then have nothing to play for apart form where in mid-table they finish, Arsenal could already have the title in the bag and be concentrating on other challenges, whilst very likely by the time NUFC face Forest and West Ham, the relegation places are sorted.
Newcastle United would still need to go on some run…
Yes all of the above will be irrelevant, unless Newcastle United also go on a very good run of results.
Those two against Man U and Chelsea are a stunning start, then if also winning against Sunderland, things really become possible with seven games to go.
Between 14 December 2024 and 15 January 2025, Newcastle United won nine games in a row (in all competitions). These included beating Arsenal, Spurs and Man U away, as well as Villa at home.
Then between 10 March 2025 and 11 May 2025, Newcastle United won eight games out of ten and lost only one. The wins included against Man U, Chelsea and Liverpool (at Wembley). The 22 points from a possible 27 in March- May 2025 earned United their Champions League qualification, despite losing to Arsenal and Everton in the last two games of the season.
Eddie Howe and Newcastle United have now numerous times went on long runs of positive results, these past four years. We could very well be in the early stages of another one now in the Premier League.
Timely return…
If Sunderland can be defeated on Sunday, the Newcastle United players will enter a three week spell of rest, recovery and preparation before then three weeks later set to play the first of seven massive games.
With Tino Livramento and others having recently returned to full fitness, Newcastle are also set to welcome back Bruno Guimaraes, Fabian Schar and Lewis Miley for the final seven matches.
With no other competitions to distract (unlike other clubs), a pretty much full squad to choose from and a full week to prepare (unlike certain others) for each of the remaining Premier League matches, with all the games (apart from Arsenal) against teams that are currently lower than NUFC in the Premier League, is it really mission impossible for Newcastle United to finish in a Champions League spot this season?
Get this win against the Mackems over and done with, then Eddie Howe and ourselves can look forward to the finishing stretch of this Premier League season with plenty of optimism and anticipation.