I have had a bit of a dive into cup draws and Newcastle United.
This was sparked by the reaction of some fans to the latest League Cup draw, Millwall set to host Newcastle on Tuesday 8 September.
With cup draws, there are two main elements when it comes to how lucky or not they feel.
The perceived quality of the opposition and whether or not you are drawn home or away.
In any domestic cup draw, Newcastle United playing at home against a team from a lower division is something nobody can complain about.
When the midweek draw was made for the League (Carabao) Cup third round, the fact Newcastle United were drawn away to Millwall was seen as unlucky by some United fans, despite the opposition currently in the Championship.
I think on balance, Newcastle United did pretty well in this latest draw, the odds were stacked against us.
The eight clubs playing in the Champions League and Europa League couldn’t play each. So Newcastle had a 50% chance of playing one of them.
Before the main part of the draw, ahead of the Preston v Everton tie we saw these eight clubs get drawn out to see whether they would be home or away. Six of them were picked out as home teams and only two to play away, so when the main part of the draw happened, the next eight clubs were then paired with either a Champions League or Europa League club. Newcastle United avoided all eight.
The other 15 potential opponents then included Chelsea, Fulham, Leeds and Everton, four other Premier League clubs. Newcastle avoided that quartet as well.
I would far rather have faced Millwall at home but playing a second tier team away, isn’t terrible news.
I then decided to have a look back over recent years, who Newcastle United had been drawn against in the domestic cups and especially whether home or away.
This to me is where I think many fans can go overboard when basing success or failure too much on how their team does in cup competitions. So much of it is down to luck, the opposition you are drawn against and whether home or away. Obviously cups are very important but when comparing seasons, or comparing your club’s results against another, how you get on in your league campaigns is by far the best guide.
What my memory told me was that when it came to getting drawn home or away, Newcastle United had experienced shocking luck for some time, before more recently we haven’t done too bad at all.
I have gone back just over three years and details the cup draws for Newcastle United, the last 22 where NUFC could have been drawn home OR away, so semi-finals excluded.
2023/24 Newcastle United cup draws
Home Manchester City (LC)
Away Manchester United (LC)
Away Chelsea (LC)
Away Sunderland (FA)
Away Fulham (FA)
Away Blackburn (FA)
Away Manchester City (FA)
2024/25 Newcastle United cup draws
Away Forest (LC)
Home AFC Wimbledon (LC)
Home Chelsea (LC)
Home Brentford (LC)
Home Bromley (FA)
Away Birmingham (FA)
Home Brighton (FA)
2025/26 Newcastle United cup draws
Home Bradford (LC)
Home Spurs (LC)
Home Fulham (LC)
Home Bournemouth (FA)
Away Villa (FA)
Home Man City (FA)
2026/27 Newcastle United cup draws
Home West Brom (LC)
Away Millwall (LC)
Quite incredible how your luck can go one way or another.
At the start of the 2023/24 season, Newcastle United drawn at home to Man City in the League Cup, then drawn away in all of the next seven domestic cup draws!
That then followed by a run of 11 home matches from the next 13, with the extra luck that came when AFC Wimbledon had to move their home time to St James’ Park.
Here’s hoping Newcastle United get past Millwall and get back to having home draws, plus maybe a lower division club or two to help ease us to a potential third Wembley visit in the space of five seasons.
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